Bearish sentiment builds
The S&P 500 index's 4.1% recovery last week may be heartening, but fading investor sentiment should keep investors on high alert.
24 Oct
The S&P 500 index's 4.1% recovery last week may be heartening, but fading investor sentiment should keep investors on high alert.
22 Sep
The new Stock Trends RSI +/- analysis provides guidance on probable outcomes and expected returns in next week's trading.
14 Sep
Stock Trends Reports now feature return estimates for individual stocks and ETFs in the Profile section.
04 May
Building momentum in emerging market equities indicates many market-timers are taking on foreign risk. ?But is it time for investors to increase their exposure? ?
28 Apr
If we are serious about technical analysis, it is important to learn the language and process of data science.
09 Apr
Stock selections from the Stock Trends Inference Model Select stocks report over the past year have out-performed the market. Here is a look at the performance summary.
08 Mar
This week's Stock Trends 'Select' stocks and statistical inference model rankings of current Picks of the Week, S&P 100 stocks, and S&P/TSX 60 stocks.
04 Mar
The Stock Trends Inference Model is built around two central premises. These assumptions are crucial legs on which technical analysis stands.
24 Feb
The Stock Trends value approach looks to find trading opportunities derived from systematic screening and inference analysis. Many gold and real estate stocks have been highlighted recently.
11 Feb
The Stock Trends inference model’s random benchmark looks at all returns possible. Universal returns are market agnostic – they are not framed by the boundaries of the moment. That is true randomness. We do not know what to expect. Anything is possible.
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A Bullish stock is not the same thing as a broadly Bullish market. A leading sector is not necessarily strengthening. A favorable historical return distribution is not a forecast. And a market environment that resembles a persistent Bullish structure can still contain weakening participation beneath the surface. Those distinctions are becoming increasingly important because investment research is no longer consumed only by people looking at charts and tables. The same evidence can now be queried by portfolio systems, software applications and AI agents capable of combining thousands of observations in seconds. That makes the quality of the underlying market intelligence more important, not less. Before a machine can reason about a market, the data must make clear what is being measured, which population it describes, when it was observed and what can legitimately be inferred from it.
Five months ago, the Stock Trends data showed an unusual development. Favorable forward-return distributions were expanding beyond established Bullish trends and appearing in Weak Bullish, consolidation, and even selected Bearish configurations. The implication was that probability was improving before conventional trend confirmation. The September 18 dataset tells the next chapter of that story. Forward probability has not continued to disperse across trend states. It has moved back toward Bullish structures, particularly among broad-market ETFs. Yet the common-stock universe beneath those indexes has barely become more bullish at all.
The recent Stock Trends editorials have established that the current market is not defined by a unified directional regime. Instead, it is characterized by internal dispersion, where leadership is fragmented across sectors, industries, and individual securities. The latest dataset reinforces that conclusion. But more importantly, it reveals a structural shift beneath the surface: forward return probabilities are no longer tightly coupled to traditional trend classifications.
The broad market still reads as a rotation market rather than a generalized expansion phase. Energy, Materials, and Utilities remain the clearest sector-level leadership blocs, but the current Stock Trends dataset shows that a second layer of leadership is now becoming more visible beneath the sector averages. That secondary leadership is important because it does not present itself as broad participation. It appears instead through specific industry groups whose internal trend structure is materially stronger than that of their parent sectors. In this week’s data, the clearest examples are Semiconductors and Equipment, Telecommunications, Containers & Packaging, and Banking. $19.95/Month
Monthly subscription plan to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter - pay your monthly subscription fees by having them automatically charged (PayPal only). Free 7-day trial period. Subscribers may cancel before the end of any subscription month.
$199/Year
1 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 16% off monthly rate!
$299/2 Years
2 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 37% off monthly rate!
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3 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 44% off monthly rate!