For Consumer Discretionary companies, the six weeks surrounding Black Friday and year-end are not just a retail storyline—they are a real-time referendum on consumer confidence, pricing power, and risk appetite. To test what this period actually means for investors, we analyzed the Stock Trends Consumer Discretionary universe across every year in the dataset, using a consistent six-week window (from the third week of November to the final trading week of December, based on weekly Friday closes).
The objective was simple: does the Stock Trends framework—trend classifications, RSI relative strength, and volume tags—extract a repeatable signal from the holiday season? The answer is nuanced, but actionable.
Data window and method
- Universe: Consumer Discretionary securities in the Stock Trends database, filtered to the holiday window each year.
- Window length: Typically 6 weekly bars (Friday week-end closes). Some series are shorter due to delistings, mergers, or incomplete histories.
- Return measure: 6-week performance from the first to last weekly bar in the window, using
adj_closeto reflect split-adjusted price history. - Indicators: Trend indicators (
trend), momentum (rsi), and unusual volume tagging (vol_tag).
What the holiday window looks like across decades
Across 12,364 stock-seasons, the average Consumer Discretionary holiday-window return is 2.05% and the median is 1.25%. About 54.6% of seasons finish positive. In other words, there is a mild seasonal tailwind—real, but not automatic.
More interesting than the average is the shape of the window. The sector tends to show early strength, a mid-window pause, and a modest year-end recovery. The table below shows the average cumulative return path, week-by-week, aggregated across all years and securities (with the share of low-volume weeks shown to remind investors when the tape is thinner).
| Within-window week | Avg cumulative return | Median cumulative return | Observations | Low-volume tags share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (start) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12,364 | 10.6% |
| Week 2 | 1.27% | 0.56% | 12,342 | 27.0% |
| Week 3 | 2.19% | 1.41% | 12,309 | 12.4% |
| Week 4 | 2.08% | 1.07% | 12,280 | 9.8% |
| Week 5 | 1.45% | 0.49% | 11,598 | 8.2% |
| Week 6 | 1.87% | 1.05% | 11,570 | 19.4% |
Interpreting the volume column: Low-volume tags cluster in the second and final weeks of the window, consistent with the calendar (shortened sessions and holiday participation). In Stock Trends terms, this is a caution flag: thin tape can exaggerate moves, and signal quality improves when price action is confirmed by broad participation.
When the holiday tailwind becomes powerful—and when it disappears
The average hides regime differences. Some years produce broad-based holiday strength, while others see the entire sector stall. Below are the strongest and weakest holiday seasons in the dataset, based on the average six-week return across the Consumer Discretionary universe.
Top 10 holiday seasons (by average 6-week return)
| Year | Macro backdrop (high level) | Stock-seasons | Avg 6-week return | Median 6-week return | % positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | GFC shock / rebound | 298 | 22.03% | 18.94% | 78.2% |
| 2020 | Pandemic shock / liquidity | 540 | 12.36% | 6.46% | 74.4% |
| 2001 | Dot-com bust | 198 | 9.08% | 7.88% | 76.8% |
| 1990 | Recession / slowdown | 80 | 9.04% | 8.68% | 75.0% |
| 1992 | Recovery / disinflation | 94 | 8.14% | 5.70% | 70.2% |
| 2010 | Recovery / Europe stress | 315 | 7.60% | 6.75% | 79.7% |
| 2009 | Post-GFC recovery | 302 | 6.95% | 4.99% | 74.2% |
| 2012 | Recovery / Europe stress | 331 | 6.92% | 6.55% | 76.1% |
| 2023 | Disinflation / AI boom | 707 | 6.64% | 7.08% | 70.7% |
| 2004 | Credit expansion | 246 | 6.26% | 5.27% | 80.1% |
Bottom 10 holiday seasons (by average 6-week return)
| Year | Macro backdrop (high level) | Stock-seasons | Avg 6-week return | Median 6-week return | % positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Rate shock / risk-off | 435 | -14.29% | -13.30% | 7.0% |
| 2021 | Reopening / inflation | 620 | -7.27% | -6.80% | 23.7% |
| 2022 | Inflation / rapid hikes | 598 | -5.36% | -4.92% | 31.9% |
| 1994 | Recovery / disinflation | 105 | -3.56% | -2.86% | 30.5% |
| 1997 | Tech-led expansion | 139 | -2.94% | -2.44% | 34.1% |
| 1980 | High inflation / recessions | 47 | -2.86% | -3.06% | 25.5% |
| 2000 | Dot-com bust | 194 | -2.85% | -3.85% | 37.1% |
| 1999 | Tech-led expansion | 192 | -2.74% | -4.00% | 31.2% |
| 2007 | Pre-GFC stress | 287 | -2.52% | -2.77% | 38.3% |
| 1983 | Early-cycle expansion | 55 | -2.22% | -3.00% | 36.4% |
Two patterns stand out:
- Post-shock rebounds can dominate the holiday window. Years like 2008 and 2020 show that extreme drawdowns can set up explosive mean-reversion rallies, even if the longer-term trend backdrop remains damaged.
- Tightening / risk-off regimes weaken the “holiday narrative.” In those environments, Consumer Discretionary stops trading as a single theme. Leadership becomes narrower, and Stock Trends users must become more selective.
What Stock Trends indicators are actually telling us
Trend is the backdrop; RSI is the timing tool
In this six-week window, trend classification provides context—but RSI relative strength provides more direct timing information. In the dataset, the relationship between average RSI during the window and the six-week return is meaningfully positive (correlation ≈ 0.26). Trend regime differences exist, but they are smaller than many investors expect for such a short horizon.
| Start-of-window trend regime | Stock-seasons | Avg 6-week return | % positive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish | 5,925 | 1.66% | 51.3% |
| Bullish | 5,658 | 2.65% | 59.3% |
| Other | 781 | 0.68% | 46.2% |
Interpretation: bullish starts do better on average than bearish starts, but not by an amount that should justify “buying the whole sector.” The practical edge comes from selecting strength within the sector—especially into the first half of the window.
Volume tags: the “signal quality” filter
The holiday window reliably produces weeks with thinner participation. This does not invalidate the signal, but it changes how it should be traded. In Stock Trends terms:
- Strong price moves on low participation are more vulnerable to reversal.
- High-volume confirmation improves the reliability of both trend continuation and RSI breakouts.
Case studies: how familiar leaders behave across regimes
To ground the regime discussion, the table below shows selected household-name Consumer Discretionary stocks across representative years. Each cell shows the six-week return, plus the average RSI and trend change during the window.
| Year | Amazon (AMZN) | Tesla (TSLA) | Home Depot (HD) | Lowe’s (LOW) | TJX Companies (TJX) | McDonald’s (MCD) | Nike (NKE) | Starbucks (SBUX) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 37.04% RSI 86.5 •  → |
— | 22.14% RSI 120.5 • → |
23.21% RSI 120.3 • → |
0.40% RSI 87.2 • → |
10.72% RSI 105.5 • → |
3.93% RSI 86.5 • → |
19.39% RSI 84.5 • → |
| 2020 | 2.36% RSI 91.5 •  → |
35.17% RSI 135.0 • → |
0.41% RSI 90.0 • → |
8.56% RSI 89.8 •  → |
10.38% RSI 111.0 • → |
-1.26% RSI 102.0 • → |
6.48% RSI 106.0 • → |
5.15% RSI 111.5 • → |
| 2022 | -9.44% RSI 71.5 • → |
-31.66% RSI 59.0 • → |
1.77% RSI 110.7 • → |
-3.83% RSI 105.0 • → |
1.71% RSI 124.2 • → |
-2.12% RSI 103.7 • → |
10.27% RSI 80.3 • → |
0.33% RSI 116.8 • → |
| 2024 | 11.01% RSI 111.0 • → |
31.29% RSI 158.7 • → |
-3.82% RSI 104.5 • → |
-8.05% RSI 99.5 • → |
1.69% RSI 98.5 • → |
0.02% RSI 109.5 • → |
0.37% RSI 87.8 • → |
-10.62% RSI 96.7 • → |
| 2025 | 2.49% RSI 94.8 • → |
17.35% RSI 117.2 • → |
4.76% RSI 81.5 • → |
5.55% RSI 87.8 • → |
3.11% RSI 106.5 • → |
2.38% RSI 103.3 • → |
7.44% RSI 82.5 • → |
0.00% RSI 95.8 • → |
Note: Tesla’s history does not cover every year. The point of this table is not that any one stock “always wins” the holidays, but that Stock Trends indicators help identify when leadership is broad, when it is narrow, and when rallies are likely to be counter-trend.
Actionable guidance at the 2025 holiday midpoint
At the midpoint of the 2025 holiday window, the Stock Trends message for Consumer Discretionary is one of selective participation rather than broad enthusiasm. While headline retail narratives remain constructive, the tape itself shows a familiar divergence: a subset of leaders continues to display bullish trend alignment and RSI strength, while a growing number of stocks have stalled or slipped into weak-bullish or bearish crossover conditions. This is not the environment to assume that “the holidays will lift everything.” Instead, Stock Trends users should focus on stocks already demonstrating relative strength into mid-December—those maintaining bullish trends with RSI holding above the market benchmark—while being cautious with laggards that are relying solely on calendar optimism. Historically, when the sector is mixed at this stage of the window, the strongest names tend to continue outperforming into year-end, while weaker names often fail to catch up. In practical terms, this argues for tightening risk controls, favoring existing winners over new speculation, and letting Stock Trends indicators—not seasonal narratives—determine exposure as the window moves into its final weeks.
Practical Stock Trends takeaways for investors
- Don’t buy the holiday story—buy the strength. The sector has a mild seasonal edge, but it is not dependable enough to trade as a blanket bet.
- Use trend as context and RSI to time entries. In risk-on years, trend-following works well into year-end. In post-shock years, RSI strength often leads trend changes.
- Respect the thin tape. Low-volume holiday weeks increase the odds of false breaks. Favor setups where the move is confirmed by participation (high-volume tagging) and by the Stock Trends signal stack (trend + RSI alignment).
- Use the sector as a barometer. When Consumer Discretionary leadership is broad into the holidays, it often signals improving risk appetite and confidence. When leadership is narrow, the market is telling you to stay selective.
How to apply this on Stock Trends
For the holiday window, a disciplined workflow looks like this:
- Start with the Consumer Discretionary universe and screen for bullish trend classifications and RSI strength.
- Separate trend-continuation candidates (bullish trend + RSI strength) from rebound candidates (bearish trend but RSI turning up sharply).
- Use volume tags as a reliability filter—especially around Thanksgiving week and the final week of the year.
In short: the holiday season does matter—but the market rewards investors who treat it as a measurable tape phenomenon, not a calendar superstition. Stock Trends indicators make that discipline practical.
I've followed a number of Stock Trends picks, and the methodology is solid.
