ETF Bullish Crossovers w/Momentum

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ETF Bullish Crossovers w/Momentum

Current Strategy Summary

Buys: 0 Sells: 0
Holdings: 46

Performance

2026 ytd: -1.4%
1 week: +0.6%
1 year: +16.0%
*5 year: +4.9%
*10 year: +6.4%
*since inception (17.5yrs): +7.0%
*avg annual return

Current Portfolio Report Portfolio History Report
(subscribers only - Login ID and password required)  

 

The ETF Bullish Crossover w/Momentum Portfolio trading strategy:
BUY a qualifying Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) when:
tagged with a “Bullish Crossover”  indicator, and
13-week Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) >= 110, and
weekly RSI +/-  is  +, and
weekly trading volume >= 1,000,000 shares
SELL a stock when:
tagged with a “Bearish Crossover”  indicator
 

 
* This strategy has been applied on a select group of over 1,000 U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds.
 
The money management rules for the portfolio are as follows:

Exposure to each position is limited to $10,000.

Transaction costs are factored into the cost of purchases and the net proceeds of sales at 1% in and 1% out, or 2% commission on a round trip.
 

Applying this very simple trading system on the Stock Trends historical data of a select group of US-listed exchange-traded funds generates the following results:
 
  

Trading Statistics

  
Total # of positions taken: 226
# of winning positions (winning %): 131 (58%)
Average gain(%) per winning position: 27%
Average loss(%) per losing position: 16%
Profit factor**: 2.3
Maximum gain(%) on a position: 170%
Maximum loss(%): -81%
Annualized return on average invested capital: 9.5%
Average invested capital: $198,604
Average # of positions held: 16
Average # of weeks invested in each position: 48

* trading stats compiled at December 31, 2021

 **Profit Factor = (% of winning trades X average $ gains on winning trades) / ABSOLUTE VALUE[(% of losing trades X average $ losses on losing trades)]

 

 

 

 

  

The current ETF Bullish Crossover w/Momentum Portfolio report is published weekly. It shows current holdings, as well as current buy and sell transactions. Investors can follow the report to emulate the performance of the portfolio or use this model portfolio to adjust their own holdings in exchange-traded funds.
 

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Stock Trends Editorial

  • Leadership Beneath the Surface: How Stock Trends Identifies System-Critical Equities
    Leadership Beneath the Surface: How Stock Trends Identifies System-Critical Equities The broad market still reads as a rotation market rather than a generalized expansion phase. Energy, Materials, and Utilities remain the clearest sector-level leadership blocs, but the current Stock Trends dataset shows that a second layer of leadership is now becoming more visible beneath the sector averages. That secondary leadership is important because it does not present itself as broad participation. It appears instead through specific industry groups whose internal trend structure is materially stronger than that of their parent sectors. In this week’s data, the clearest examples are Semiconductors and Equipment, Telecommunications, Containers & Packaging, and Banking.
    29 March 2026 Read more...
  • Indexing Is the Baseline—Probability Is the Edge
    Indexing Is the Baseline—Probability Is the Edge The case for indexing continues to strengthen, and rightly so. The evidence is overwhelming: most active managers fail to outperform their benchmarks over time, and the costs of attempting to do so only compound the underperformance. For many investors, indexing has become not just a strategy, but the default solution. But the conclusion that often follows—that markets cannot be meaningfully outperformed—is where the interpretation begins to break down. The failure of traditional active management is not evidence that opportunity does not exist. It is evidence that non-probabilistic selection fails.
    24 March 2026 Read more...
  • Continuation, Not Expansion: What the Probability Structure Now Reveals
    Continuation, Not Expansion: What the Probability Structure Now Reveals The current market is not offering investors the kind of broad speculative expansion that often defines the early phase of a powerful advance. Nor is it confirming a simple risk-off breakdown. The latest Stock Trends dataset points to something more disciplined. The probability structure remains constructive, but it is now being expressed primarily through continuation and consolidation rather than broad breakout expansion.
    21 March 2026 Read more...
  • When Headlines Darken but the Probability Structure Holds
    When Headlines Darken but the Probability Structure Holds The recent Stock Trends editorials argued that hard assets had become structural leaders and that capital was rotating across themes rather than collapsing into a simple risk-on or risk-off binary. This week’s data adds a new layer. The market’s probability structure has improved even as the macro headlines have become more hostile. That is a distinct signal, and it is coming directly from the Stock Trends Inference Model.
    14 March 2026 Read more...
View all Stock Trends Editorials
 
 

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1 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 16% off monthly rate!

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