Holiday Tape in Consumer Discretionary: What 46 Seasons Reveal Through Stock Trends Indicators

Published in Stock Trends

For Consumer Discretionary companies, the six weeks surrounding Black Friday and year-end are not just a retail storyline—they are a real-time referendum on consumer confidence, pricing power, and risk appetite. To test what this period actually means for investors, we analyzed the Stock Trends Consumer Discretionary universe across every year in the dataset, using a consistent six-week window (from the third week of November to the final trading week of December, based on weekly Friday closes).

The objective was simple: does the Stock Trends framework—trend classifications, RSI relative strength, and volume tags—extract a repeatable signal from the holiday season? The answer is nuanced, but actionable.

Subscriber Testimonials

I've followed your recommendations since reading your columns in the Globe & Mail, and finding they published Stock Trends arrows in their financial listings. I do find them a guide to the general market and what I should be avoiding for declining chart trends.
Has probably saved me the subscription by not rushing into hot stocks!
Anthony D., Subscriber
I very much like the systematic approach to analyzing stock data, it fits my approach.
Subscriber
An admitted cynic, it's obviously very high praise when he says he likes StockTrends because of its "simplicity, utility, openness, [and] honesty," and in addition to having "no hidden agenda" is "understandably documented [and] historically verifiable." And, he adds, "It lets me see a lot of things without doing a lot of work." Globe and Mail
Paul W., Subscriber
Your report is an impressive, excellent tool and I have recommmended it to friends.
Colin E., Subscriber
I have had the good fortune to be reasonably successful and enjoy the investment process. Your process would be recommended for both experts and those who are new to investing.
Frank I., Subscriber
I want to thank you for posting such an excellent guide to technical analysis on the web. You have provided a great service to all of us novice investors.
Michael C., Stock Trends user
You have created and maintained an amazing, highly educational program and I am grateful for your part in getting our retirement funds to the good place they are.
Karin M., Subscriber
Hence, anyone who had followed the "Stock Trends" line should have sold their Bre-X shares and, with the windfall, paid for a lifetime subscription to The Globe and Mail and more. Talk about return on investment!
Muni P., Subscriber
Stock Trends analysis quantifies nicely the movement of individual stocks. I’ve found that if the technicals are out of synch with fundamental analysis, it is a wake-up call to make a decision. The Stock Trends Bull/Bear Ratio is useful in identifying major market bottoms and tops. It has always presented a good buying or selling opportunity.
Charles G., Subscriber
I am fascinated with your service and methodology - it is very impressive. [...] Over the years I have concluded that there are many ways to approach stock investing, but once one has chosen a path, one is better off sticking to it.
Bob E., Subscriber
Stock Trends Weekly Reporter is an easy way to pick up equities that represent an upward trend.
Subscriber
Just thought I'd call to thank you, Skot. Stock Trends Weekly Reporter helped pay for my daughter's education!
Peter H., Subscriber
I am something of a momentum investor. I find Stock Trends useful as I can look at my portfolio as a “watch list” and quickly see where trends are declining in strength or reversing, so it is particularly useful as a tool in portfolio management regarding sales.
William C., Subscriber
Thank you for your excellent work and kind approach to your customers.
Odette C., Subscriber
Stock Trends information is part of the base information I review before making a trade.
Subscriber
I use Stock Trends to help direct my stock picks. Also, following the advice of Stock Trends I have religiously used stop-loss orders and have avoided hanging on to losing stocks for emotional reasons.
John B., Subscriber
There is a lot to be gained from comparing trends of how individual stocks are doing within a sector, as well as how the sector is performing relative to the broad market.
Dudley R., Subscriber
I've followed a number of Stock Trends picks, and the methodology is solid.
Doug B., Subscriber
I am just writing to tell you of my appreciation of your service! It makes so much sense to me. You seem to be an oasis of stability and sensibility in a stockmarket jungle.
Adrian S., Subscriber
I find your website and research very helpful in my stock trading. I have subscribed to several related services in the past and none present their work with “just the facts” as you. Please keep up the great work so that I can continue to learn!
Bryan E., Subscriber

Subscription Plans

STWR - Monthly

$19.95

Monthly subscription plan to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter - pay your monthly subscription fees by having them automatically charged (PayPal only). Free 7-day trial period. Subscribers may cancel before the end of any subscription month.

STWR - 1 Year Prepaid Subscription

$199.00

1 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 16% off monthly rate!

STWR - 2 Year Prepaid Subscription

$299.00

2 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 37% off monthly rate!

STWR - 3 Year Prepaid Subscription

$399.00

3 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 44% off monthly rate!

Stock Trends Editorial

War, Inflation, and Rotation: What Stock Trends Reveals After the Middle East Shock
This week's market headlines have been dominated by war, oil, and inflation fears. However, the Stock Trends context indicates that this is not a broad liquidation. It is a disciplined rotation into sectors tied to scarcity, resilience, and security. Markets do not move from a blank slate. They rotate, they re-price, and they reveal where capital was already preparing to move before the headlines become obvious. This past week’s escalation in the Middle East has undeniably shaken investor confidence, but the latest Stock Trends dataset suggests that the deeper message is not indiscriminate panic. It is a reordering of leadership.

07 March 2026 Read more...
Not Risk-On. Not Risk-Off. Rotation.
Not Risk-On. Not Risk-Off. Rotation. In our recent editorial, The Hard Asset Regime Is Not a Trade — It’s a Structure, we examined the persistent leadership emerging in gold and materials and argued that real assets were no longer functioning as short-term hedges, but as structural participants in the market. The current Stock Trends dataset extends that thesis — but in a different direction. The 13-week ST-IM probability model is no longer pointing to a narrow leadership cluster. It is identifying a market redistributing capital across multiple durable themes simultaneously. This is not a simple “risk-on” environment. It is not a defensive “risk-off” retreat. It is rotation.

02 March 2026 Read more...
The Hard-Asset Regime Is Not a Trade — It’s a Structure
Markets rarely move randomly. They rotate. They reallocate. They transition from one leadership regime to another. And when that transition is real, it shows up not in headlines — but in breadth. This week’s Stock Trends universe reveals something decisive. When we measure common stocks only (removing ETFs that duplicate underlying holdings), two sectors stand apart: Materials and Energy.

21 February 2026 Read more...
Stock Trends Mid-Quarter Review: How the Year-End 2025 Themes Are Performing in Q1 2026
Halfway through Q1 2026, the question is no longer theoretical: Did the year-end institutional momentum and ST-IM Alpha themes actually guide investors effectively? With the updated February 13, 2026 Stock Trends dataset now in hand, we can measure the outcome directly — not against headlines, but against trend structure, relative strength, and momentum persistence. The short answer: the framework largely held — but leadership rotated exactly where the model suggested it might.

14 February 2026 Read more...