Stock Trends Year-End Analysis: Institutional Momentum, ST-IM Alpha, and the Road Into Q1 2026

  • 29 December 2025 |
  • Written by  Skot Kortje, Stock Trends Analyst
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As 2025 comes to a close, investors naturally ask whether the strongest trends visible at year-end represent durable opportunity—or merely seasonal noise. The Stock Trends framework addresses this question not by forecasting headlines, but by examining how trend structure, momentum and participation, and ST-IM forward opportunity align across different classes of capital.

This year-end outlook integrates three complementary lenses that Stock Trends users can carry directly into Q1 2026:

  • Large-cap institutional momentum — where capital can deploy at scale
  • Top Trending momentum leadership — where price discovery is happening fastest
  • Stock Trends Inference Model (ST-IM) — where forward return expectations and risk dispersion suggest true alpha opportunity

1) Institutional momentum with forward return visibility

Institutional capital rarely “discovers” trends the way retail momentum does. It confirms them—after liquidity, scale, and durability are established. For that reason, large-cap analysis is essential for understanding the broader market regime heading into a new quarter.

In this editorial, the large-cap lens is strengthened by explicitly incorporating the ST-IM forward return estimates across three horizons:

  • Expected return: x4wk, x13wk, x40wk
  • Risk dispersion (standard deviation): x4wksd, x13wksd, x40wksd
  • ST-IM Alpha Score (risk-adjusted): Expected return ÷ standard deviation

How to read the Large-Cap table: A higher ST-IM Alpha Score indicates stronger expected reward per unit of uncertainty. The 13-week horizon is particularly relevant for Q1 positioning, while the 4-week horizon captures near-term momentum and the 40-week horizon provides longer-cycle context.

Table 1 — Large-Cap Institutional ST-IM Alpha Opportunities (Q4 2025)

StockSectorIndustryTrendRSIRVOLx4wk %x4wk SDST-IM Alpha 4Wx13wk %x13wk SDST-IM Alpha 13Wx40wk %x40wk SDST-IM Alpha 40WComposite Alpha
Coherent Corp. (COHR-N) Technology Scientific & Precision Equipment ST BullishSmall 172 4.6 1.2 15.1 0.08 17.3 36.7 0.47 25.4 82.9 0.31 0.32
Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE-N) Materials Gold ST BullishSmall 100 11.7 1.4 9.2 0.15 7.5 18.4 0.41 8.6 29.7 0.29 0.31
Ciena Corporation (CIEN-N) Technology Communications Equipment ST BullishSmall 163 4.5 5.3 22.1 0.24 13.7 42.8 0.32 20.9 82.9 0.25 0.28
MongoDB Inc. (MDB-Q) Technology Cloud Infrastructure & Internet Services ST BullishSmall 131 3.8 2.8 14.6 0.19 8.4 28.7 0.29 12.8 51.7 0.25 0.25
Hecla Mining Company (HL-N) Materials Precious Metals ST BullishSmall 166 11.1 2.8 18.7 0.15 6.9 34.4 0.20 10.2 56.9 0.18 0.18
Tesla Inc. (TSLA-Q) Consumer Discretionary Electric Vehicle Manufacturers ST BullishSmall 103 7.4 1.6 10.2 0.15 3.8 19.2 0.20 8.5 43.5 0.19 0.18
First Solar Inc. (FSLR-Q) Energy Solar Energy ST BullishSmall 118 8.4 1.3 10.7 0.12 3.8 19.9 0.19 9.3 37.9 0.24 0.18
Teradyne Inc. (TER-Q) Technology Semiconductors Parts & Equipment ST BullishSmall 141 3.9 2.7 21.1 0.13 6.2 32.7 0.19 15.9 84.7 0.19 0.17
Dollar General Corporation (DG-N) Consumer Staples Hypermarkets & Discount Stores ST BullishSmall 129 3.9 0.7 14.2 0.05 5.7 30.1 0.19 12.3 58.8 0.21 0.15
Moderna Inc. (MRNA-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 122 8.8 0.9 14.4 0.07 5.2 28.4 0.18 9.7 47.8 0.20 0.15
Intel Corporation (INTC-Q) Technology Semiconductors ST BullishSmall 98 3.5 -0.5 12.0 -0.04 5.7 31.5 0.18 7.6 40.8 0.19 0.12
Micron Technology Inc. (MU-Q) Technology Semiconductors ST BullishSmall 174 7.8 -3.0 13.1 -0.23 6.5 38.0 0.17 8.0 54.6 0.15 0.05
AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV-Q) Industrials Aerospace & Defense ST BullishSmall 81 6.8 1.7 13.7 0.13 4.5 28.9 0.16 5.2 49.9 0.10 0.14
Alcoa Corporation (AA-N) Materials Aluminum ST BullishSmall 159 7.4 0.9 17.8 0.05 5.1 33.6 0.15 9.9 60.7 0.16 0.12
Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS-Q) Healthcare Diagnostics & Screening ST BullishSmall 182 4.1 -0.1 19.0 -0.01 4.5 35.9 0.13 25.0 98.3 0.25 0.11
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX-Q) Technology Computer Hardware & Peripheral Equipment ST BullishSmall 126 4.2 -0.6 14.2 -0.04 3.4 26.2 0.13 7.1 42.8 0.17 0.09
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD-Q) Technology Semiconductors ST BullishSmall 129 4.2 -0.1 11.2 -0.01 2.7 21.8 0.12 5.6 44.3 0.13 0.08
Albemarle Corporation (ALB-N) Materials Special Chemicals ST BullishSmall 163 6.7 -1.8 17.3 -0.10 2.6 32.7 0.08 11.1 66.2 0.17 0.04
Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM-Q) Technology Cloud Infrastructure & Internet Services ST BullishSmall 111 3.9 0.0 10.8 0.00 1.1 20.6 0.06 6.4 39.3 0.16 0.06

2) Top Trending momentum leadership with ST-IM context

The Top Trending Stocks of the Week report (a key weekly filter report available to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter subscribers) answers a different question: where is price moving fastest right now, once trend quality and acceleration conditions are already confirmed? This list is intentionally size-agnostic—many names will not meet institutional constraints, and that is precisely why it is valuable as a leadership scanner.

Momentum leadership often appears first where price can revalue quickly. The additional step—critical for disciplined Stock Trends users—is evaluating whether that momentum also aligns with statistically favorable forward opportunity under ST-IM.

How to read the Top Trending table: This table separates “fast movers” from “high-quality opportunity” by combining momentum leadership with the same ST-IM forward returns and standard deviation measures used in the institutional lens. Higher ST-IM Alpha Scores indicate more attractive risk-adjusted opportunity.

Table 2 — Top Trending Stocks with ST-IM Alpha Context (Week Ending 2025-12-26)

StockSectorIndustryTrendRSIRVOLx4wk %x4wk SDST-IM Alpha 4Wx13wk %x13wk SDST-IM Alpha 13Wx40wk %x40wk SDST-IM Alpha 40W
Coherent Corp. (COHR-N) Technology Scientific & Precision Equipment ST BullishSmall 172 4.7 1.2 15.1 0.08 17.3 36.7 0.47 25.4 82.9 0.31
Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM-Q) Technology Semiconductors ST BullishSmall 170 2.8 6.5 26.3 0.25 18.1 53.8 0.34 38.1 176.1 0.22
Ciena Corporation (CIEN-N) Technology Communications Equipment ST BullishSmall 163 4.5 5.3 22.1 0.24 13.7 42.8 0.32 20.9 82.9 0.25
Toro Corp. (TORO-Q) Industrials Maritime Shipping ST BullishSmall 166 2.3 4.3 23.9 0.18 15.3 50.7 0.30 33.0 168.7 0.20
AXT Inc (AXTI-Q) Technology Semiconductors Parts & Equipment ST BullishSmall 316 18.7 5.3 34.2 0.15 20.2 70.5 0.29 6.8 117.6 0.06
Victorias Secret & Co. (VSCO-N) Consumer Discretionary Apparel Retail & Accessories ST BullishSmall 197 7.7 1.2 18.5 0.06 9.4 38.0 0.25 20.5 74.1 0.28
Axogen Inc. (AXGN-Q) Healthcare Surgical & Medical Apparatus ST BullishSmall 183 4.0 6.8 23.1 0.29 11.7 46.2 0.25 25.0 91.9 0.27
FTC Solar Inc. (FTCI-Q) Energy Solar Energy ST BullishSmall 159 1.6 3.0 21.6 0.14 11.2 44.3 0.25 26.0 91.3 0.28
FIGS Inc. Class A (FIGS-N) Consumer Discretionary Clothing Manufacturing ST BullishSmall 172 3.7 2.4 18.9 0.13 10.8 44.1 0.24 14.5 59.4 0.24
Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN-A) Materials Gold ST BullishSmall 167 3.3 3.0 16.5 0.18 10.1 42.7 0.24 16.5 76.3 0.22
Sprott Physical Silver Trust Units (PSLV-N) Finance Asset Management Services ST BullishSmall 161 14.4 0.4 17.6 0.02 8.9 39.3 0.23 10.3 40.5 0.26
Belite Bio Inc (BLTE-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 212 1.7 3.9 23.0 0.17 7.8 37.9 0.21 14.6 85.1 0.17
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARWR-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 205 2.6 1.4 31.4 0.04 12.0 59.6 0.20 26.5 106.9 0.25
Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML-Q) Materials Industrial Metals ST BullishSmall 198 14.1 1.9 22.0 0.09 8.7 43.6 0.20 25.5 121.0 0.21
Hecla Mining Company (HL-N) Materials Precious Metals ST BullishSmall 166 11.1 2.8 18.7 0.15 6.9 34.4 0.20 10.2 56.9 0.18
Immunome Inc. (IMNM-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 180 7.6 3.3 22.0 0.15 5.8 31.1 0.19 32.3 108.0 0.30
Tenax Therapeutics Inc. (TENX-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 167 11.0 1.6 21.3 0.08 6.9 37.8 0.18 17.7 74.4 0.24
Micron Technology Inc. (MU-Q) Technology Semiconductors ST BullishSmall 174 7.8 -3.0 13.1 -0.23 6.5 38.0 0.17 8.0 54.6 0.15
SCHMID Group N.V. (SHMD-Q) Technology Electronic Parts & Equipment Manufacture ST BullishSmall 171 3.1 0.6 18.5 0.03 5.5 32.7 0.17 16.1 75.9 0.21
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited A (TEVA-N) Healthcare Pharmaceutical Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ST BullishSmall 167 2.7 0.9 18.6 0.05 5.5 33.1 0.17 12.7 68.8 0.18
Abivax SA (ABVX-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 165 9.9 2.5 17.0 0.15 5.6 33.0 0.17 9.1 57.7 0.16
Nutex Health Inc. (NUTX-Q) Healthcare Hospitals and Care Facilities ST BullishSmall 165 5.5 1.9 18.4 0.10 6.3 37.2 0.17 14.6 63.4 0.23
Structure Therapeutics Inc. (GPCR-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 262 6.8 3.1 26.5 0.12 12.6 76.9 0.16 17.1 141.8 0.12
Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 203 2.4 2.7 21.6 0.13 5.0 34.7 0.15 8.2 62.8 0.13
Alcoa Corporation (AA-N) Materials Aluminum ST BullishSmall 159 7.4 0.9 17.8 0.05 5.1 33.6 0.15 9.9 60.7 0.16
Tyra Biosciences Inc. (TYRA-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 192 2.8 2.3 21.5 0.11 8.0 56.5 0.14 18.9 86.2 0.22
Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 159 5.0 1.1 17.5 0.06 6.0 42.9 0.14 12.6 71.1 0.18
Trio-Tech International (TRT-A) Technology Semiconductors Parts & Equipment ST BullishSmall 235 8.7 2.2 30.8 0.07 6.5 50.1 0.13 26.8 179.4 0.15
Vicor Corporation (VICR-Q) Technology Electronic Parts & Equipment Manufacture ST BullishSmall 219 4.2 1.7 28.0 0.06 6.5 51.3 0.13 24.7 123.9 0.20
Alumis Inc. (ALMS-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 260 2.6 5.2 42.3 0.12 7.1 57.3 0.12 32.6 137.9 0.24
Fortrea Holdings Inc. (FTRE-Q) Healthcare Life Sciences Equipment & Services ST BullishSmall 192 3.4 0.9 21.2 0.04 6.0 49.9 0.12 21.6 87.5 0.25
Surrozen Inc. (SRZN-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 184 2.2 1.1 17.9 0.06 4.3 35.5 0.12 16.8 68.5 0.25
Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 181 7.5 0.7 19.4 0.03 4.8 42.6 0.11 11.4 76.4 0.15
Tandem Diabetes Care Inc. (TNDM-Q) Healthcare Surgical & Medical Apparatus ST BullishSmall 179 6.2 1.8 28.2 0.06 5.4 47.6 0.11 5.4 72.6 0.07
Spyre Therapeutics Inc. (SYRE-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 194 3.0 2.0 23.0 0.09 3.8 37.5 0.10 16.0 78.3 0.20
Americas Gold and Silver Corporation no (USAS-A) Materials Silver ST BullishSmall 168 6.6 4.1 17.9 0.23 3.0 29.8 0.10 -2.3 31.0 -0.08
Monte Rosa Therapeutics Inc. (GLUE-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 221 5.0 1.5 22.5 0.06 3.6 39.3 0.09 18.7 80.2 0.23
Owlet Inc. Class A (OWLT-N) Healthcare Healthcare Information Services ST BullishSmall 171 3.7 0.7 20.7 0.03 3.7 41.8 0.09 1.3 64.6 0.02
Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 194 4.0 0.9 23.3 0.04 4.5 57.8 0.08 10.6 86.8 0.12
Albemarle Corporation (ALB-N) Materials Special Chemicals ST BullishSmall 163 6.7 -1.8 17.3 -0.10 2.6 32.7 0.08 11.1 66.2 0.17
Omeros Corporation (OMER-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 338 51.9 1.8 31.8 0.06 3.5 48.8 0.07 10.4 79.4 0.13
Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA-N) Materials Industrial Metals ST BullishSmall 180 2.7 -0.3 22.8 -0.01 2.5 35.4 0.07 16.5 69.5 0.24
CalciMedica Inc. (CALC-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 194 2.9 4.3 93.8 0.05 3.7 65.2 0.06 18.1 101.4 0.18
Oruka Therapeutics Inc. (ORKA-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 200 4.1 -1.2 21.8 -0.06 0.6 37.2 0.02 16.4 94.7 0.17
Nurix Therapeutics Inc. (NRIX-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 207 4.4 0.8 25.8 0.03 -6.7 35.2 -0.19 1.9 72.4 0.03
Tactile Systems Technology Inc. (TCMD-Q) Healthcare Surgical & Medical Apparatus ST BullishSmall 206 3.5 1.0 22.9 0.05 -6.7 40.3 -0.17 5.0 79.7 0.06
AnaptysBio Inc. (ANAB-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 204 5.2 -0.3 18.5 -0.02 -2.8 35.3 -0.08 3.6 57.4 0.06
Aimei Health Technology Co. Ltd (AFJK-Q)     ST BullishSmall 373 0.0 -6.5 32.1 -0.20 -4.1 63.5 -0.06 16.5 131.4 0.13
Wave Life Sciences Ltd. (WVE-Q) Healthcare Biotechnology ST BullishSmall 251 5.9 3.0 31.1 0.10 -0.6 48.4 -0.01 -9.0 55.0 -0.16
Central Puerto S.A. American Depositary (CEPU-N) Utilities Regulated Electric Utilities ST BullishSmall 195 0.5 -3.5 24.4 -0.14 -0.6 53.3 -0.01 1.4 88.4 0.02

3) Convergence signal: the Top 20 composite ST-IM alpha opportunities for Q1 2026

The strongest evidence at year-end rarely comes from any single list. It comes from alignment—when institutional-eligible trends remain constructive while momentum leadership broadens in a way that is supported by forward opportunity measures.

To summarize that alignment into a practical Q1 roadmap, we blend both universes (large-cap institutional + Top Trending momentum) and rank candidates by a Composite ST-IM Alpha Score that emphasizes the Q1-relevant horizon:

  • 50% weight: ST-IM Alpha (13-week)
  • 30% weight: ST-IM Alpha (4-week)
  • 20% weight: ST-IM Alpha (40-week)

How to read the Composite table: These are not predictions. They are probability-weighted opportunity candidates that score well across multiple horizons. Use this list as a disciplined starting point for deeper Stock Trends review (ST Report pages), position sizing, and risk control.

Table 3 — Top 20 Composite ST-IM Alpha Opportunities (Q1 2026)

RankStockSourceSectorIndustry_GroupTrendST-IM Alpha 4WST-IM Alpha 13WST-IM Alpha 40WComposite Alpha
1 Coherent Corp. (COHR-N) Large-Cap Institutional Technology Hardware & Equipment ST BullishSmall 0.08 0.47 0.31 0.32
2 Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE-N) Large-Cap Institutional Materials Mining ST BullishSmall 0.15 0.41 0.29 0.31
3 Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM-Q) Top Trending Momentum Technology Semiconductors and Equipment ST BullishSmall 0.25 0.34 0.22 0.29
4 Ciena Corporation (CIEN-N) Large-Cap Institutional Technology Hardware & Equipment ST BullishSmall 0.24 0.32 0.25 0.28
5 Axogen Inc. (AXGN-Q) Top Trending Momentum Healthcare Medical Equipment & Supplies ST BullishSmall 0.29 0.25 0.27 0.27
6 MongoDB Inc. (MDB-Q) Large-Cap Institutional Technology Software & IT Services ST BullishSmall 0.19 0.29 0.25 0.25
7 Toro Corp. (TORO-Q) Top Trending Momentum Industrials Transportation ST BullishSmall 0.18 0.30 0.20 0.24
8 FTC Solar Inc. (FTCI-Q) Top Trending Momentum Energy Renewable Energy Producers ST BullishSmall 0.14 0.25 0.28 0.23
9 Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN-A) Top Trending Momentum Materials Mining ST BullishSmall 0.18 0.24 0.22 0.22
10 FIGS Inc. Class A (FIGS-N) Top Trending Momentum Consumer Discretionary Apparel & Luxury ST BullishSmall 0.13 0.24 0.24 0.21
11 AXT Inc (AXTI-Q) Top Trending Momentum Technology Semiconductors and Equipment ST BullishSmall 0.15 0.29 0.06 0.20
12 Victorias Secret & Co. (VSCO-N) Top Trending Momentum Consumer Discretionary Retail - Discretionary ST BullishSmall 0.06 0.25 0.28 0.20
13 Immunome Inc. (IMNM-Q) Top Trending Momentum Healthcare Biotechnology & Life Sciences ST BullishSmall 0.15 0.19 0.30 0.20
14 Belite Bio Inc (BLTE-Q) Top Trending Momentum Healthcare Biotechnology & Life Sciences ST BullishSmall 0.17 0.21 0.17 0.19
15 Tesla Inc. (TSLA-Q) Large-Cap Institutional Consumer Discretionary Vehicles ST BullishSmall 0.15 0.20 0.19 0.18
16 First Solar Inc. (FSLR-Q) Large-Cap Institutional Energy Renewable Energy Producers ST BullishSmall 0.12 0.19 0.24 0.18
17 Hecla Mining Company (HL-N) Large-Cap Institutional Materials Mining ST BullishSmall 0.15 0.20 0.18 0.18
18 Sprott Physical Silver Trust Units (PSLV-N) Top Trending Momentum Finance Asset Management Services ST BullishSmall 0.02 0.23 0.26 0.17
19 Teradyne Inc. (TER-Q) Large-Cap Institutional Technology Semiconductors and Equipment ST BullishSmall 0.13 0.19 0.19 0.17
20 Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML-Q) Top Trending Momentum Materials Mining ST BullishSmall 0.09 0.20 0.21 0.17

What this year-end configuration suggests for Q1 2026

When these three lenses are viewed together, the year-end message is coherent and constructive:

  • Institutional-scale stocks show measurable forward opportunity—not just trend persistence
  • Momentum leadership is expanding rather than collapsing
  • ST-IM alpha is concentrated in identifiable sector and industry groups rather than scattered randomly

This configuration does not eliminate Q1 volatility. But it does argue that pullbacks should be interpreted first as tests within trends until the Stock Trends indicators show otherwise.

Guidance for Stock Trends users

  • Respect the trend regime: stay aligned with confirmed Bullish and transitional structures until transitions deteriorate.
  • Use Top Trending for leadership discovery: it reveals where price discovery is strongest right now.
  • Use ST-IM Alpha Scores for opportunity prioritization: expected return matters most when evaluated against dispersion.
  • Let transitions—not narratives—change your stance: the system’s strength is discipline under uncertainty.

The Stock Trends framework does not promise outcomes. It provides a systematic way to interpret what the market is already revealing. As 2025 closes and Q1 2026 begins, that evidence supports disciplined participation—selective, risk-aware, and grounded in trend confirmation.

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Stock Trends Editorial

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