Statistical inference of price trends
Investors who want to apply a quantitative approach to their trading can learn more about the Stock Trends statistical inference model.
19 Aug
Investors who want to apply a quantitative approach to their trading can learn more about the Stock Trends statistical inference model.
06 Aug
A principal direction ahead for Stock Trends - quantitative analysis of the Stock Trends Reports - starts to take shape. Statistical analysis unlocks the value of the Stock Trends indicator combinations.
09 Mar
If an investor wants to replicate a published trading system, each trade should be entered tactically. Stock Trends portfolios can be emulated on a post-trigger basis, but results will depend on how the trades are executed.
26 Feb
Quantitative trading demands an understanding of the characteristics of a dataset. Evaluating descriptive statistics of category groups is an important first step in helping us assign possible correlation of the Stock Trends indicators to future price performance.
17 Feb
Every stock picking service should provide a detailed analysis of their results. Here's a statistical description of the results of Stock Trends Picks of the Week since the beginning of 2012.
15 Jan
If a stock was in a Bearish (
) trend last autumn, there's a good chance it did much better in the past three months. Here's a look at the statistical performance of one sample taken then.
14 Dec
Everyone seems to love Apple. But maybe not so much now. It's stock is now a Bearish Crossover (
). Investors should be aware what this "Death Cross" implies for future downside risk.
10 Sep
Stock Trends is distinctive - and perhaps, most effective - because it is simple. However, we are working on publishing statistical analysis of our data so that investors can execute trades with a defined positive expectation. We're keeping it simple, but the analysis will be more powerful.
02 Jun
Investors are preparing for even worse news ahead. Bonds are rallying, with yields now dipping into unchartered territory. Underlying inflation expectations have pushed even U.S. long bonds into negative real rates of returns. Not surprisingly, TIPs are attracting broad interest.
01 Jun
When has a market bottomed? Technicians look for divergences. Ed Carlson, CMT briefly explains how divergences in trading volume spikes can indicate a true bottom has been made.
$19.95
Monthly subscription plan to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter - pay your monthly subscription fees by having them automatically charged (PayPal only). Free 7-day trial period. Subscribers may cancel before the end of any subscription month.
$199.00
1 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 16% off monthly rate!
$299.00
2 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 37% off monthly rate!
$399.00
3 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 44% off monthly rate!
A Bullish stock is not the same thing as a broadly Bullish market. A leading sector is not necessarily strengthening. A favorable historical return distribution is not a forecast. And a market environment that resembles a persistent Bullish structure can still contain weakening participation beneath the surface. Those distinctions are becoming increasingly important because investment research is no longer consumed only by people looking at charts and tables. The same evidence can now be queried by portfolio systems, software applications and AI agents capable of combining thousands of observations in seconds. That makes the quality of the underlying market intelligence more important, not less. Before a machine can reason about a market, the data must make clear what is being measured, which population it describes, when it was observed and what can legitimately be inferred from it.
Five months ago, the Stock Trends data showed an unusual development. Favorable forward-return distributions were expanding beyond established Bullish trends and appearing in Weak Bullish, consolidation, and even selected Bearish configurations. The implication was that probability was improving before conventional trend confirmation. The September 18 dataset tells the next chapter of that story. Forward probability has not continued to disperse across trend states. It has moved back toward Bullish structures, particularly among broad-market ETFs. Yet the common-stock universe beneath those indexes has barely become more bullish at all.
The recent Stock Trends editorials have established that the current market is not defined by a unified directional regime. Instead, it is characterized by internal dispersion, where leadership is fragmented across sectors, industries, and individual securities. The latest dataset reinforces that conclusion. But more importantly, it reveals a structural shift beneath the surface: forward return probabilities are no longer tightly coupled to traditional trend classifications.
The broad market still reads as a rotation market rather than a generalized expansion phase. Energy, Materials, and Utilities remain the clearest sector-level leadership blocs, but the current Stock Trends dataset shows that a second layer of leadership is now becoming more visible beneath the sector averages. That secondary leadership is important because it does not present itself as broad participation. It appears instead through specific industry groups whose internal trend structure is materially stronger than that of their parent sectors. In this week’s data, the clearest examples are Semiconductors and Equipment, Telecommunications, Containers & Packaging, and Banking. $19.95/Month
Monthly subscription plan to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter - pay your monthly subscription fees by having them automatically charged (PayPal only). Free 7-day trial period. Subscribers may cancel before the end of any subscription month.
$199/Year
1 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 16% off monthly rate!
$299/2 Years
2 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 37% off monthly rate!
$399/3 Years
3 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 44% off monthly rate!