Trading after the signal
If an investor wants to replicate a published trading system, each trade should be entered tactically. Stock Trends portfolios can be emulated on a post-trigger basis, but results will depend on how the trades are executed.
09 Mar
If an investor wants to replicate a published trading system, each trade should be entered tactically. Stock Trends portfolios can be emulated on a post-trigger basis, but results will depend on how the trades are executed.
26 Feb
Quantitative trading demands an understanding of the characteristics of a dataset. Evaluating descriptive statistics of category groups is an important first step in helping us assign possible correlation of the Stock Trends indicators to future price performance.
17 Feb
Every stock picking service should provide a detailed analysis of their results. Here's a statistical description of the results of Stock Trends Picks of the Week since the beginning of 2012.
15 Jan
If a stock was in a Bearish (
) trend last autumn, there's a good chance it did much better in the past three months. Here's a look at the statistical performance of one sample taken then.
14 Dec
Everyone seems to love Apple. But maybe not so much now. It's stock is now a Bearish Crossover (
). Investors should be aware what this "Death Cross" implies for future downside risk.
10 Sep
Stock Trends is distinctive - and perhaps, most effective - because it is simple. However, we are working on publishing statistical analysis of our data so that investors can execute trades with a defined positive expectation. We're keeping it simple, but the analysis will be more powerful.
02 Jun
Investors are preparing for even worse news ahead. Bonds are rallying, with yields now dipping into unchartered territory. Underlying inflation expectations have pushed even U.S. long bonds into negative real rates of returns. Not surprisingly, TIPs are attracting broad interest.
01 Jun
When has a market bottomed? Technicians look for divergences. Ed Carlson, CMT briefly explains how divergences in trading volume spikes can indicate a true bottom has been made.
29 Apr
The U.S. employment numbers are far from uplifting - but U.S. consumer stocks are! They are among the market leaders and continue to reflect positively on the economy.
23 Apr
The bullish trend foundation of North American equities should help deliver positive returns through the rest of the year. There are pockets of sector weakness, but strength in some important areas. The Bull/Bear Ratio helps guide us...
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The recent Stock Trends editorials have established that the current market is not defined by a unified directional regime. Instead, it is characterized by internal dispersion, where leadership is fragmented across sectors, industries, and individual securities. The latest dataset reinforces that conclusion. But more importantly, it reveals a structural shift beneath the surface: forward return probabilities are no longer tightly coupled to traditional trend classifications.
The broad market still reads as a rotation market rather than a generalized expansion phase. Energy, Materials, and Utilities remain the clearest sector-level leadership blocs, but the current Stock Trends dataset shows that a second layer of leadership is now becoming more visible beneath the sector averages. That secondary leadership is important because it does not present itself as broad participation. It appears instead through specific industry groups whose internal trend structure is materially stronger than that of their parent sectors. In this week’s data, the clearest examples are Semiconductors and Equipment, Telecommunications, Containers & Packaging, and Banking.
The case for indexing continues to strengthen, and rightly so. The evidence is overwhelming: most active managers fail to outperform their benchmarks over time, and the costs of attempting to do so only compound the underperformance. For many investors, indexing has become not just a strategy, but the default solution. But the conclusion that often follows—that markets cannot be meaningfully outperformed—is where the interpretation begins to break down. The failure of traditional active management is not evidence that opportunity does not exist. It is evidence that non-probabilistic selection fails.
The current market is not offering investors the kind of broad speculative expansion that often defines the early phase of a powerful advance. Nor is it confirming a simple risk-off breakdown. The latest Stock Trends dataset points to something more disciplined. The probability structure remains constructive, but it is now being expressed primarily through continuation and consolidation rather than broad breakout expansion. $19.95/Month
Monthly subscription plan to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter - pay your monthly subscription fees by having them automatically charged (PayPal only). Free 7-day trial period. Subscribers may cancel before the end of any subscription month.
$199/Year
1 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 16% off monthly rate!
$299/2 Years
2 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 37% off monthly rate!
$399/3 Years
3 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 44% off monthly rate!