15% avg. annual return
TSX Portfolio #2
- Published in Strategies - Canada
15% avg. annual return
24% avg annual return
Stock Trends symbols and indicator values are used to quickly and visually communicate the results of our moving average trend analysis.
Stock Trends uses two volume indicator symbols to identify stocks that have traded an ‘unusual’ number of shares during the week. The term ‘unusual’ is arbitrarily defined as >= 200% (i.e. double) or <= 50% (one-half) of the 13-week average weekly trading volume for a stock. Since infrequently traded stocks would tend to trigger these indicators more often than not (too often to be useful), the volume indicators are limited to stocks with a minimum average weekly volume of 100,000 shares traded.
Unusually high volume indicator
The stock’s trading volume for the week is at least double (>= 200%) its average weekly volume (13-week moving average). Trading implications: The High Volume
indicator, concurrent with a Bullish Crossover
symbol, has proven to be a highly successful identifier of stocks verging on a long-term bullish trend. Generally, high volume should support price advances, and at times can precede or anticipate them.
Unusually low volume indicator
The stock’s trading volume for the week is no more than one-half (<= 50%) its average weekly volume (13-week moving average). Trading implications: The Low Volume
indicator, concurrent with advancing price, offers both a warning for Bullish (
or
) stocks and a possible Buy trading signal for Bearish (
or
) stocks.
Stock Trends symbols and indicator values are used to quickly and visually communicate the results of our moving average trend analysis.
The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) provides a measure of the strength of a stock’s recent price movements relative to a comparative market index. For U.S. markets (NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX), U.S. indexes, and international indexes, the comparative index is the S&P 500 Index. For the Toronto Stock Exchange, the comparative index is the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
The RSI is made up of two parts, a numerical value followed by a ‘+’ or ‘–‘ sign.
The numerical value is indexed to a base of 100 for easy comparisons, and is calculated by comparing a stock’s price movement relative to the comparative market index over a period of 13 weeks. Stocks with an RSI above 100 are outperforming the comparative market index over the 13-week period, while those with an RSI below 100 are under-performing the index during that period.
For example, a stock with an RSI value of 115 has outperformed the market by 15% over the past 13 weeks, while a stock with a value of 85 has under-performed by 15%.
The RSI value is a momentum indicator – it will often oscillate over time as the stock price advances, stalls, or falters. Generally, stocks with a rising RSI value can anticipate even further price advances.
The second part of the RSI is based on a stock’s price movement relative to the comparative market index in the most current week. A stock that has out-performed the market index for the week would be tagged with a ‘+’, while any stock that under-performed the market index would be tagged with a ‘–‘.
For example, if a stock has advanced 8% on the week, while the market advanced only 3%, the stock would have a ‘+’ beside the RSI value. If a stock advanced only 2% and the market advanced 3%, it would display a ‘–‘ beside its RSI value. Alternatively, if a stock declined 3% on the week, while the market declined 5%, the stock would qualify for a ‘+’ beside the RSI value, denoting its relatively superior performance. However, if the stock had declined more than 5%, it would show a ‘–‘.
As a further example of both parts of the RSI, given a stock with an RSI of 87+, the value 87 indicates that the stock has under-performed the comparative market index by 13% over a 13-week period, but has outperformed the same comparative market index during the most recent week.
The (+/-) relative strength indicator is extremely useful in both advancing and declining markets, as it isolates stocks that are not moving with the prevailing market trend.
Stock Trends symbols and indicator values are used to quickly and visually communicate the results of our moving average trend analysis.
5/25
In some forms of Stock Trends listings, two trend counter values, separated by a ‘/’, may appear immediately to the right of the trend symbol.
1st trend counter value = age of the current Trend Symbol, expressed as the number of consecutive weeks the stock has shown the current trend symbol.
2nd trend counter value = age of current Trend Category (Bullish or Bearish), expressed as the number of consecutive weeks the stock has shown one of the trend symbols in the current trend category.
For example, given the Stock Trends listing
5/25, the value 5 beside the
symbol means the stock has shown this trend symbol for five consecutive weeks. The following value of ‘/25’ means the stock has shown one of the three trend symbols (
or
) in the Bearish Trend Category (since
is one of the Bearish Trend Category symbols) for twenty-five consecutive weeks.
$19.95
Monthly subscription plan to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter - pay your monthly subscription fees by having them automatically charged (PayPal only). Free 7-day trial period. Subscribers may cancel before the end of any subscription month.
$199.00
1 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 16% off monthly rate!
$299.00
2 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 37% off monthly rate!
$399.00
3 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 44% off monthly rate!
A Bullish stock is not the same thing as a broadly Bullish market. A leading sector is not necessarily strengthening. A favorable historical return distribution is not a forecast. And a market environment that resembles a persistent Bullish structure can still contain weakening participation beneath the surface. Those distinctions are becoming increasingly important because investment research is no longer consumed only by people looking at charts and tables. The same evidence can now be queried by portfolio systems, software applications and AI agents capable of combining thousands of observations in seconds. That makes the quality of the underlying market intelligence more important, not less. Before a machine can reason about a market, the data must make clear what is being measured, which population it describes, when it was observed and what can legitimately be inferred from it.
Five months ago, the Stock Trends data showed an unusual development. Favorable forward-return distributions were expanding beyond established Bullish trends and appearing in Weak Bullish, consolidation, and even selected Bearish configurations. The implication was that probability was improving before conventional trend confirmation. The September 18 dataset tells the next chapter of that story. Forward probability has not continued to disperse across trend states. It has moved back toward Bullish structures, particularly among broad-market ETFs. Yet the common-stock universe beneath those indexes has barely become more bullish at all.
The recent Stock Trends editorials have established that the current market is not defined by a unified directional regime. Instead, it is characterized by internal dispersion, where leadership is fragmented across sectors, industries, and individual securities. The latest dataset reinforces that conclusion. But more importantly, it reveals a structural shift beneath the surface: forward return probabilities are no longer tightly coupled to traditional trend classifications.
The broad market still reads as a rotation market rather than a generalized expansion phase. Energy, Materials, and Utilities remain the clearest sector-level leadership blocs, but the current Stock Trends dataset shows that a second layer of leadership is now becoming more visible beneath the sector averages. That secondary leadership is important because it does not present itself as broad participation. It appears instead through specific industry groups whose internal trend structure is materially stronger than that of their parent sectors. In this week’s data, the clearest examples are Semiconductors and Equipment, Telecommunications, Containers & Packaging, and Banking. $19.95/Month
Monthly subscription plan to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter - pay your monthly subscription fees by having them automatically charged (PayPal only). Free 7-day trial period. Subscribers may cancel before the end of any subscription month.
$199/Year
1 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 16% off monthly rate!
$299/2 Years
2 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 37% off monthly rate!
$399/3 Years
3 Year Prepaid subscription to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter. Save 44% off monthly rate!