Skot Kortje

Skot Kortje

Charting

 

Stock Trends symbols and indicator values are used to quickly and visually communicate the results of our moving average trend analysis.

 

Charting

The relationship of the Stock Trends symbols to the commonly depicted method of graphing moving averages and the related price history of a stock is illustrated in the following graph:

 

The Stock Trends weak bullish indicator () alerts readers to a possible change in trend. When the current closing price is more than 3% below its 13-week moving average while the 13-week moving average remains above the 40-week moving average, a stock is labeled with a weak bullish indicator.

 

The Stock Trends weak bearish indicator () alerts readers to a possible change in trend. When the current closing price is more than 3% above its 13-week moving average while the 13-week moving average remains below the 40-week moving average, a stock is labeled with a weak bearish indicator.

Bearish Trends

 

Stock Trends symbols and indicator values are used to quickly and visually communicate the results of our moving average trend analysis.

 

BEARISH Price Trends      

 

 Bearish Crossover (aka 'Newly Bearish')

· The stock’s Trend Category has changed from BULLISH to BEARISH. The 13-week MA, which was above the 40-week MA a week previous, has now moved below it. A stock exhibiting this Trends Symbol is in the 1st week of its new BEARISH Trend Category.
· Trading implications: generally considered a trade exit signal.


 Bearish (aka 'Strong Bearish')

· The closing price is below the upper limit of the 13-week MA envelope (i.e. less than 13-week moving average price + 3%). This indicates that the short-term bearish trend of the stock’s price remains relatively strong.
· Trading implication: generally considered a negative signal for holding. Trade exit signals already triggered.


 Weak Bearish

The closing price is above the upper limit of the 13-week MA envelope (i.e. greater than 13-week moving average price + 3%). This indicates that the short-term bearish trend is weakening, and will result in a Bullish Crossover m at some point unless the stock’s price falters below the 13-week MA envelope.
· Trading implication: generally considered an alert that the bearish trend has abated and that often implies a trade entry signal.

Bullish Trends

 

Stock Trends symbols and indicator values are used to quickly and visually communicate the results of our moving average trend analysis.

BULLISH Price Trends      

 

 Bullish Crossover (aka ‘Newly Bullish')

· The stock’s Trend Category has changed from BEARISH to BULLISH. The 13-week MA, which was below the 40-week MA a week previous, has now moved above it. A stock in this sub-category is in the 1st week of its new BULLISH Trend Category.
· Trading implications: often considered a good trade entry signal.


 Bullish (aka ‘Strong Bullish’)

· The closing price is above the lower limit of the 13-week MA envelope (i.e. greater than 13-week moving average price - 3%). This indicates that the short-term bullish trend of the stock’s price remains relatively strong.
· Trading implication: generally considered positive in terms of both trade entry and holding.


 Weak Bullish

· The closing price is below the lower limit of the 13-week MA envelope (i.e. less than 13-week moving average price - 3%). This indicates that the short-term bullish trend is weakening, and will ultimately result in a Bearish Crossover M unless the stock’s price can recover above the 13-week MA envelope.
· Trading implication: generally still considered positive in terms of holding, although it can be a strong exit signal. At the minimum, this alert calls for a review of the holding.

Trend Symbol Reference Guide

 

Stock Trends symbols and indicator values are used to quickly and visually communicate the results of our moving average trend analysis.

Trend Symbols – Quick Reference

Symbol Trend
Name
Trend
Category
13-week MA
vs.
40-week MA
Current Price
vs
13-week MA 'Envelope'
Trading
implication
Bullish Crossover
(New Bullish)

Bullish
Intersected
(13-wk
above 40-wk)
Above
lower limit
(-3%)
Buy
Signal
Bullish
(Strong Bullish)

Bullish
13-wk
Above
40-wk
Above
lower limit
(-3%)
Buy
Signal
Weak
Bullish

Bullish
13-wk
Above
40-wk
Below
lower limit
(-3%)
Hold/Sell
Signal
Bearish Crossover
(New Bearish)

Bearish
Intersected
(13-wk below
40-wk)
Below
upper limit
(+3%)
Sell
Signal
Bearish
(Strong Bearish)

Bearish
13-wk
Below
40-wk
Below
upper limit
(+3%)
Sell
Signal
Weak
Bearish

Bearish
13-wk
Below
40-wk
Above
upper limit
(+3%)
Monitor/Buy
Signal

 

The symbols are assigned to a stock based on the relationship of three values:
1. The stock’s Current Price (most recent Friday close).
2. The 40-week moving average price (40-week MA).
3. The 13-week moving average price (13-week MA). An envelope of +/- 3% around the 13-week MA is also used to determine the symbol applicable to each stock.

Each Trend Symbol falls into one of two Trend Categories – BULLISH or BEARISH, determined by the relationship of the 40-week and 13-week MA values.
If the 13-week MA is greater than (above) the 40-week MA, a stock is categorized as BULLISH. If the 13-week MA is less than (below) the 40-week MA, a stock is categorized as BEARISH.

Individual Trend Symbols are based on:
1. Whether the Trend Category has changed from the previous week, and
2. The relationship of the Current Price and an ‘envelope’ of plus/minus 3% around the 13-week MA value.

If the Trend Category has changed from the previous week (i.e. the 13-week MA has intersected the 40-week MA line), then the stock will be given either a Bullish Crossover or Bearish Crossover symbol -  or . These are also referred to as “Newly Bullish” and “Newly Bearish” symbols, and are only shown in the 1st week of a Trend Category change. Once a stock has moved into a new Trend Category, in future weeks it will display one of the other two symbols (a solid or empty arrow) within the category until it changes to the other Trend Category.

Sample Stock Listing

 

 

Stock Trends symbols and indicator values are used to quickly and visually communicate the results of our moving average trend analysis.

 

A sample stock listing with Stock Trends indicators:

Trend Trend Counter  RSI Stock Symbol High Low Close Chg Vol(00s) Hi/Low Vol Indicator
Arrow 5/25 104- Microsoft Corp.  MSFT 26.86 25.37 25.80 +2.2 2599124 Star

 

Note: Stock Trends indicators are applied only to stocks that have traded for at least 40+ weeks. A trading history of this period is required to calculate a 40-week moving average and categorize a primary trend.

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Stock Trends Editorial

  • Market Intelligence Begins With Context
    Market Intelligence Begins With Context A Bullish stock is not the same thing as a broadly Bullish market. A leading sector is not necessarily strengthening. A favorable historical return distribution is not a forecast. And a market environment that resembles a persistent Bullish structure can still contain weakening participation beneath the surface. Those distinctions are becoming increasingly important because investment research is no longer consumed only by people looking at charts and tables. The same evidence can now be queried by portfolio systems, software applications and AI agents capable of combining thousands of observations in seconds. That makes the quality of the underlying market intelligence more important, not less. Before a machine can reason about a market, the data must make clear what is being measured, which population it describes, when it was observed and what can legitimately be inferred from it.
    05 October 2026 Read more...
  • The Indexes Have Confirmed. The Market Beneath Them Has Not.
    The Indexes Have Confirmed. The Market Beneath Them Has Not. Five months ago, the Stock Trends data showed an unusual development. Favorable forward-return distributions were expanding beyond established Bullish trends and appearing in Weak Bullish, consolidation, and even selected Bearish configurations. The implication was that probability was improving before conventional trend confirmation. The September 18 dataset tells the next chapter of that story. Forward probability has not continued to disperse across trend states. It has moved back toward Bullish structures, particularly among broad-market ETFs. Yet the common-stock universe beneath those indexes has barely become more bullish at all.
    19 September 2026 Read more...
  • Forward Probability Is Expanding Beyond Trend Confirmation
    Forward Probability Is Expanding Beyond Trend Confirmation The recent Stock Trends editorials have established that the current market is not defined by a unified directional regime. Instead, it is characterized by internal dispersion, where leadership is fragmented across sectors, industries, and individual securities. The latest dataset reinforces that conclusion. But more importantly, it reveals a structural shift beneath the surface: forward return probabilities are no longer tightly coupled to traditional trend classifications.
    08 April 2026 Read more...
  • Leadership Beneath the Surface: How Stock Trends Identifies System-Critical Equities
    Leadership Beneath the Surface: How Stock Trends Identifies System-Critical Equities The broad market still reads as a rotation market rather than a generalized expansion phase. Energy, Materials, and Utilities remain the clearest sector-level leadership blocs, but the current Stock Trends dataset shows that a second layer of leadership is now becoming more visible beneath the sector averages. That secondary leadership is important because it does not present itself as broad participation. It appears instead through specific industry groups whose internal trend structure is materially stronger than that of their parent sectors. In this week’s data, the clearest examples are Semiconductors and Equipment, Telecommunications, Containers & Packaging, and Banking.
    29 March 2026 Read more...
View all Stock Trends Editorials
 
 

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