When Headlines Darken but the Probability Structure Holds

The Stock Trends Inference Model does not begin by guessing what a stock “should” do next. It begins with what actually happened before. Each week, the Stock Trends indicators classify securities by trend, momentum, and volume structure. Once enough time has passed, the database records the realized 4-week, 13-week, and 40-week forward price changes that followed those observations. Those forward returns then become the empirical sample used to estimate the return distribution associated with a given setup.

From that historical sample, Stock Trends calculates estimated return intervals and standard deviations for the 4-week, 13-week, and 40-week horizons, then estimates the probability that a current setup will exceed the base mean random return for each period: 0% over 4 weeks, 2.19% over 13 weeks, and 6.45% over 40 weeks. The website’s Select screen then applies a further filter: the probability of exceeding the 13-week base mean must be at least 55%, along with minimum price and liquidity requirements.

That distinction matters because the current data is strong in two different ways. First, the broader probability-ranked ST-IM table for March 13, 2026 contains 845 names, which is near the extreme upper end of the historical range and well above the long-run average of about 313. Second, when the website’s tighter Select screen is applied, 162 stocks and ETFs still qualify with prob13wk >= 55%. In other words, the probability set is broad, and the stricter actionable subset remains meaningfully populated.

The internal trend structure of that tighter Select list is especially revealing. Of the 162 current qualifiers, 102 are Weak Bullish and 54 are Bullish. Only a handful appear in bearish states. In Stock Trends terms, that means the highest-probability setups are not primarily fresh speculative breakouts. They are overwhelmingly established bullish structures, many of them consolidating rather than failing.

This is precisely where the present market diverges from the emotional tone of the headlines. A genuinely deteriorating market would tend to show a shrinking probability set and a larger share of bearish trend structures inside the highest-ranked names. Instead, the data suggests that many current setups still resemble historical conditions that went on to produce favorable forward returns relative to the 13-week random benchmark.

That does not mean every stock will advance, and it does not eliminate macro risk. It means that beneath the surface turbulence, the market is still generating a substantial number of indicator combinations that have historically been associated with relative outperformance. The message is not blind optimism. The message is that the market’s statistical structure remains more constructive than sentiment alone would imply.

What the Select Screen Is Emphasizing

The tighter Select screen still leans toward leadership rather than defense. Broad equity ETFs remain prominent, especially large-cap and Nasdaq-oriented vehicles, while commodity-linked and inflation-sensitive exposures are also present. That combination fits the broader pattern seen in recent editorials: not a clean risk-off retreat, but a market rotating through inflation-aware leadership while preserving a constructive intermediate-term opportunity set.

Symbol	Name	Trend	RSI	Prob. > 13wk Base Mean
IOO	iShares Global 100 ETF		100	67.10%
SFY	SoFi Select 500 ETF		100	67.10%
QQQ	INVESCO QQQ Trust		100	67.10%
QQQM	Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF		100	67.10%
TDIV	First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend I		100	67.10%
CGL	iShares Gold Bullion ETF		112	65.97%
HEDJ	WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund		103	62.27%
JCPI	JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond ETF		103	62.26%
BBUS	JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Equity ETF		100	61.81%
PBUS	Invesco MSCI USA ETF		100	61.81%
BKLC	BNY Mellon US Large Cap Core Equity ETF		100	61.81%
IVV	iShares Core S&P 500 ETF		100	61.81%

Among individual stocks, the current qualifiers are spread across consumer discretionary, finance, healthcare, energy, industrials, and technology. That spread is important. The probability structure is not being sustained by a single narrow theme. It is broad enough to suggest that the market is consolidating within leadership rather than collapsing into uniform weakness.

Symbol	Name	Sector	Industry Group	Trend	RSI	Prob. > 13wk Base Mean
CTRN	Citi Trends Inc.	Consumer Discretionary	Retail - Discretionary		100	66.07%
SRBK	SR Bancorp Inc.	Finance	Banking		101	65.16%
GRCE	Grace Therapeutics Inc.	Healthcare	Biotechnology & Life Sciences		131	61.59%
MXC	Mexco Energy Corporation	Energy	Fossil Fuels		122	59.38%
PWR	Quanta Services Inc.	Industrials	Construction		131	59.14%
ACMR	ACM Research Inc.	Technology	Semiconductors and Equipment		123	58.38%
RY	Royal Bank Of Canada	Finance	Banking		100	60.36%
LOCO	El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc.	Consumer Discretionary	Restaurants & Bars		113	60.52%
CMRE	Costamare Inc. $0.0001 par value	Industrials	Transportation		106	58.74%
EDAP	EDAP TMS S.A.	Healthcare	Medical Distributors		140	57.95%
RS	Reliance Inc.	Materials	Steel		105	57.26%

Sector Context

On the tighter Select screen, Finance, Healthcare, Energy, and Materials remain the most visible identified sector clusters, but the relative weightings tell a more nuanced story. Energy and Materials are clearly overweight relative to the known-sector universe, reinforcing the hard-asset and inflation-sensitive regime described in recent editorials. Healthcare is also meaningfully overweight, suggesting continued strength in defensive growth leadership. Finance, while the largest sector by absolute count inside the screened list, appears roughly in line with its broader market representation rather than distinctly overweight. Technology remains present but more selective than broad. This is not indiscriminate risk appetite. It is structured participation concentrated in sectors tied to inflation resilience and defensive growth.

That sector picture becomes even more significant when placed beside the trend structure of the Select list, where the overwhelming majority of names remain in Bullish or Weak Bullish states. The model is not highlighting a market driven by panic reversals. It is highlighting a market still finding historically favorable setups inside established leadership.

Sector Distribution of Stock Trends Inference Model Select Stocks

Trend Distribution of current ST-IM Select Stocks

Trend	Count	Share of Select List	Interpretation
Weak Bullish	102	63.0%	Primary bullish trend undergoing consolidation
Bullish	54	33.3%	Established bullish trend
Bearish	4	2.5%	Bearish trend
Bearish Crossover	1	0.6%	Recent bearish crossover
Weak Bearish	1	0.6%	Bearish trend showing near-term recovery

ETF Confirmations of the Current Macro Structure

The most useful way to interpret this week’s Stock Trends data is therefore not that the macro backdrop has stopped mattering. It is that the current backdrop has not yet broken the probability structure of the market. The market may feel fragile at the headline level, but the ST-IM continues to identify a large set of current conditions whose historical forward returns were better than random. And when the stricter website filter is applied, the surviving group still clusters heavily in bullish trend states.

That is the new perspective emerging from the data. The previous editorials established that real assets had become structural leaders and that leadership was broadening through rotation. This week’s evidence adds something more precise: even under hostile headlines, the market is still producing an unusually constructive probability set. In the language of Stock Trends, the weight of the evidence still favors continuation over collapse.