TSX Weak Bearish Breakout Portfolio

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TSX Weak Bearish Breakout Portfolio

Current Strategy Summary

Buys: 0 Sells: 1
Holdings: 7

Performance

2025 ytd: +30.2%
1 week: -2.0%
1 year: +33.2%
*5 year: +20.0%
*10 year: +4.4%
*since inception (32.0yrs): +14.3%
*avg annual return

Current Portfolio Report Portfolio History Report
(subscribers only - Login ID and password required)  

The Stock Trends TSX Weak Bearish Breakout trading strategy, defined below, has averaged 14% annual returns over the 28-year period from February 1994 to December 2021!

 

ST TSX Weak Bearish Breakout Portfolio Strategy Performance - 1995 to 2021:

Year Avg Invested Capital ($) Net Gain/(Loss) ($) ST Portfolio (%)* S&P/TSX(%) Difference (%)
2021 19,811 792 4.0 21.7 -17.7
2020 21,321 -9,859 -46.2 2.7 -48.9
2019 31,698 8,701 27.4 20.7 6.7
2018 24,151 -16,142 -66.1 -12.3 -53.8
2017 23,585 -10,872 -46.3 6.0 -52.3
2016 14,717 3,218 21.7 17.5 4.2
2015 73,585 -6,868 -9.2 -8.9 -0.3
2014 115,849 26,626 23.0 7.5 15.5
2013 111,509 24,565 22.1 10.3 11.8
2012 88,113 5,927 6.8 3.0 3.8
2011 100,000 -20,842 -20.7 -11.1 -9.6
2010 151,321 61,372 40.7 14.5 26.2
2009 132,830 49,750 37.7 41.4 -3.7
2008 89,623 -45,219 -49.7 -39.9 -9.8
2007 201,321 36,903 18.2 7.1 11.1
2006 183,962 -3,261 -1.8 14.3 -16.1
2005 176,038 99,483 56.7 21.9 34.8
2004 150,755 40,403 27.0 13.5 13.5
2003 110,566 37,758 34.5 23.1 11.4
2002 78,491 3,857 4.9 -13.6 18.5
2001 104,906 5,828 5.5 -13.8 19.3
2000 110,943 -19,388 -17.3 5.6 -22.9
1999 163,962 39,428 23.9 29.6 -5.7
1998 148,302 -30,590 -20.6 -1.1 -19.5
1997 342,453 114,110 33.0 11.5 21.5
1996 347,170 81,380 23.5 25.1 -1.6
1995 273,585 23,458 8.6 11.6 -3.0

* ST portfolio annual returns are based on average invested capital for the year.

 

You can review a history of ALL completed positions (i.e. a position is 'completed' when it is bought and sold): Trading History

How can you too follow the Stock Trends TSX Weak Bearish Breakout Portfolio?... simply subscribe to Stock Trends Weekly Reporter for $19.95/mo (or choose one of our money-saving annual subscription plans). Each week we run our proprietary Stock Trends Portfolio Buy filter to find new acquisitions for this and other portfolios, and review the current portfolio holdings for our Sell signals - all published in weekly Portfolio reports made available to subscribers. 


STOCK TRENDS TSX WEAK BEARISH BREAKOUT TRADING STRATEGY


The trading criteria defined for the Stock Trends TSX Weak Bearish Breakout are as follows:

BUY a stock when:

  • tagged with a "Weak Bearish" indicator (), and
  • weekly volume is above 500,000 shares, and volume of trading is at least twice the 13-week average volume (volume tagged as high - ), and
  • price movement on the week exceeds the comparative market index (+ sign beside the RSI), and
  • week closing price is at the week high, and
  • finally, limit the selection to stocks trading above $2 at the time of entry.

 

Note that transaction costs are factored into the cost of purchases and the net proceeds of sales at 1% in and 1% out, or 2% commission on a round trip. 

 

SELL criteria are as follows:

  • Sell Trigger #2: A Stop Loss provision is defined for each position held, setting the stop price at 20% below the highest closing price (minimum $0.50 below). If a stock is trading at or below the stop price at the end of a trading week, it is sold at the weekly closing price. Stop prices are moved up with any weekly increase in the stock's price, but, once increased, are never moved back down. 

Stock Trends TSX Weak Bearish Breakout Portfolio has a winning percentage (the number of trades that provided positive returns as a percentage of the total number of trades) of 39%. What makes the system successful is the ratio of the average gains on positive return trades to the average losses on negative return trades. One way to represent this relationship and measure the profitability of a trading system is the Profit Factor:

 

Trading Statistics

 
Total # of positions taken: 462
# of winning positions (winning %): 179 (39%)
Average gain(%) per winning position: 53%
Average loss(%) per losing position: 16%
Profit factor**: 2.0
Maximum gain(%) on a position: 600%
Maximum loss(%): -57%
Annualized return on average invested capital: 14%
Average invested capital: $124,315
Average # of positions held: 13
Average # of weeks invested in each position: 39

* trading stats compiled at December 31, 2021 

 **Profit Factor = (% of winning trades X average $ gains on winning trades) / ABSOLUTE VALUE[(% of losing trades X average $ losses on losing trades)]

 

Stock Trends TSX Weak Bearish Breakout Portfolio Distribution of Returns

 

 

Stock Trends Editorial

  • The Quiet Power of Hospital Consumables: Durable Trends Hidden in Plain Sight
    The Quiet Power of Hospital Consumables: Durable Trends Hidden in Plain Sight In markets where headline indexes appear steady but leadership narrows beneath the surface, the Stock Trends framework tends to guide investors toward a specific class of opportunity: durable trends supported by durable business structure. This week’s universe reinforces that late-cycle character—Bullish classifications remain dominant overall, yet momentum leadership is increasingly selective. It is in this environment that a largely ignored cohort deserves fresh attention: hospital consumables. These are the unglamorous, repeat-use products embedded deep within clinical workflows—dialysis supplies, catheters, blood collection systems, sterilization kits, and procedure disposables. They rarely make headlines, but they often exhibit the same technical signature Stock Trends users learn to respect: persistent trend behavior with corrections that are more often time-based than destructive.
    20 December 2025 Read more...
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    Holiday Tape in Consumer Discretionary: What 46 Seasons Reveal Through Stock Trends Indicators For Consumer Discretionary companies, the six weeks surrounding Black Friday and year-end are not just a retail storyline—they are a real-time referendum on consumer confidence, pricing power, and risk appetite. To test what this period actually means for investors, we analyzed the Stock Trends Consumer Discretionary universe across every year in the dataset, using a consistent six-week window (from the third week of November to the final trading week of December, based on weekly Friday closes). The objective was simple: does the Stock Trends framework—trend classifications, RSI relative strength, and volume tags—extract a repeatable signal from the holiday season? The answer is nuanced, but actionable.
    15 December 2025 Read more...
  • Understanding Our Assumptions — A Decade Later
    Understanding Our Assumptions — A Decade Later For decades, the Stock Trends framework has rested on a foundational analytical question: Can we infer future return tendencies from recurring patterns of trend, momentum, and trading activity? In 2014, we formalized this question through the Stock Trends Inference Model (ST-IM), built on two basic premises: Market conditions are non-specific to a particular security. Market responses to these conditions are specific. Those ideas remain central to Stock Trends today. But the investing world has changed. Academic research into momentum, trend-following, and behavioural finance has deepened; markets have experienced extreme macro cycles; and our own analytical tools have evolved dramatically. A decade later, it is time to revisit the original assumptions, test them against modern evidence, and expand their meaning for today’s Stock Trends users.
    11 December 2025 Read more...
  • Trading Nvidia with the Stock Trends RSI +/– Pattern Analysis Model
    Trading Nvidia with the Stock Trends RSI +/– Pattern Analysis Model Nvidia’s extraordinary rise in recent years has made it a centrepiece of both long-term institutional portfolios and short-term trading desks. Yet few tools provide a disciplined, data-driven lens for navigating NVDA’s volatile weekly momentum. The Stock Trends RSI +/– Pattern Analysis model model is one of them—an evidence-based framework that converts historical price–benchmark relationships into probabilistic expectations of next-week performance. When applied to NVDA-Q, it becomes a powerful guide for traders seeking tactical entries, binary-style short-term trades, or precision timing for longer-term positions.
    11 December 2025 Read more...
View all Stock Trends Editorials
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